2019 economic expectations

The International Monetary Fund estimates that world economic growth will be around 3.5% in 2019. Compared to 2018 and 2019, world growth data dominated the expectation of slowdown due to trade wars and high-interest rates.

The global economy had begun with the 2018 strong and world-wide growth news. However, as the year progressed, the acceleration decreased. In addition to the economic war that the United States has started to impose customs duties and sanctions on China, especially the twists and threats of sanctions by Trump, pushed many countries to take small steps in the economic field and look skeptical to the future, and the world-wide growth trends have changed.

The US is urging Japan and the EU countries to change their trade balances in favor of the United States, arguing that they are threatening to leave Canada and Mexico, the TransPassification agreement, and the US and Oceania countries in bilateral agreements. The 25% customs duty threat to cars to be imported from the EU, targeting Trump's German automotive giants, was still in the minds of Trump's twit: "I will fight them until there is no single Mercedes in New York's 5th Street"

While the US economy accelerated by the financial incentive that came into force in early 2018, the European Union's new Euro Zone, the UK, Japan, and China's economies began to weaken. These different trends will continue in 2019. IHS Markit predicts that global growth will fall to 3.1% in 2019 with a worse forecast than IMF data and will continue to slow down in the next few years.

2019 World Economy: Forecast &Expextations

1. US economy growth trend will continue
The US economy is estimated to grow by at least 2% in 2019, based on estimates of sustainable growth, such as labor and productivity. The US economy grew by 2.9% in 2018, but the main reasons for the US economy to grow so much were tax incentives, financial incentives, and consumer spending increases. This situation, which positively affects the US economy, will positively affect economic growth in 2019 but will decline as the year progresses. In 2019, an economic growth rate of 2.6% is expected.

2. Europe's enlargement will slow further
The growth of the eurozone reached its peak in the second half of 2017, but since then the EU economy has been growing at a lower rate each year. The European Union's economic growth forecast is estimated at 1.5% for 2018. Estimates at the end of 2018 were 1.7%. For the year 2020, EU growth projections, previously forecasted as 1.8%, were reduced to 1.7%

The political uncertainties caused by the UK's Brexit decision, the popular resistance against the French government and Emmanuel Macron's economic measures, and the resignation of the Angela Merkel government in Germany will have a negative impact on the European Union's economy.

Many factors, such as tightening the credit conditions offered to banks and union members and increasing commercial tensions with other countries, especially the US, will slow down the economic growth of the European Union.

3. Japan's economy will grow less than 1% in 2019
Japan's economy grew by 0.8% in 2018. The expected growth rate for 2019 0.9% The global tensions stemming from trade wars between the US and China, as well as the cost increases of international trade from logistics to raw material prices, have a negative impact on the Japanese economy.

The Japanese monetary policy will continue to be compatible with the markets next year. The cyclical decline in Japan's growth shows that in the long term, the economy will continue with very weak growth. Negative demographics - especially because of the aging Japanese workforce - are not balanced by a sufficiently strong productivity increase.

The US demand for a balance of US, Japan, and other trade figures, especially in the Japanese automotive industry, is another factor that will affect the Japanese economy negatively. Simply put, US cars can't expand its market share in Japan. Japan will increase Japanese automakers' investments and production figures in the US. In this case, the automotive exports to the US will be reduced and Japanese export figures will fall. Japan started to give a current account deficit in export-import figures after many years.

world economy, 2019 trade wars

4. China's economy will continue to slow down
The Chinese economy's growth rate has been steadily falling since the beginning of 2017. In the third quarter of 2018, it reached its lowest level in the last 10 years. On an annual basis, the growth rate was 6.9% in 2017 and decreased to 6.6% in 2018. The growth rate of the Chinese economy is expected to decrease to 6% in 2019.

In the US trade wars, it does not only adversely affect Chinese exports. Growth-promoting policies implemented by the Chinese government to stabilize financial markets and support manufacturers have eased the shock waves in 2018, but in 2019, the Chinese government seems to be hard to keep the markets alive, largely due to rising credit rates and increased borrowing.

China has to agree with the US without giving all the Trumps and without surrender, but the US demands for years to restrict years of unilateral trade with tough and daring demands. If China is to resist the US export volume will decrease in 2019, production and patent costs and imports will increase if delivered.

5. The Economic Growth Rate of Developing Countries Will Continue to Fall in 2019
Brazil, India, and in 2018 the country's economy is growing, including Russia, than that experienced economic turbulence in previous years, a moderate recovery while living in Argentina, the country's economy, which is growing like South Africa and Turkey have remained under intense financial pressure. There were periods of direct or indirect influence from US trade wars.

In 2019, although the actors may change, the scenario will not change and a significant portion of the emerging markets will be exposed to several negative impacts, including the slowdown in the pace of world economies and in developed economies. in many countries, 2019 will be more difficult and the larger crises dominate the rhetoric at the door. The strengthening of the US dollar, the difficulty of financial conditions; Increased political uncertainty in countries such as Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela. the rest of the world will continue to adversely affect.

6. Commodity Markets 2019
In 2019, it is foreseen that there will not be enough demand in the commodity markets. Although the prices in 2015 are not expected to hit the bottom, the volatility in the commodity markets, especially the fluctuation in oil prices, will be seen frequently in 2019. It is expected that oil prices will increase slightly in the coming year, but the average price of USD 70 per barrel will be achieved.

7. Global inflation rates will remain close to 3.0%
Most of the increase in consumer price inflation between 2015 and 2018 was between 2% and 3%. This situation is due to the change in deflationary conditions observed in developed economies, which is related to inflation targets of 2% of central banks.

As the output gap is closing and unemployment rates are down, some economies are experiencing upward pressure on inflation, while in countries with downward inflation pressures. Growth rates in many developed economies are falling outside the United States. Moreover, compared to 2018, commodity prices are fluctuations in 2019, but prices are expected to remain unchanged when the year averages are taken. The most important trigger that will change these conditions is trade wars. If there is no compromise between the US and China, even if there are some EU-related restraints on sectors such as automotive, price increases, and inflation will be unavoidable for many countries.

8. Fed raises rates and may follow several other central banks
While key economies in the world are at different points in the business world, it is not surprising that central banks move at different speeds and in different directions. However, weak growth and silent inflation pressure are likely.

The interest policies of the US Central Bank in FED 2019 will determine the position of the US dollar and the strategies of other central banks. The Bank of England, the Central Bank of Canada, and the central banks of developing countries, such as Brazil, India, Russia, may increase interest rates.

9. US Dollar Value and Exchange Rates 2019 forecasts
US growth exceeded expectations. The Fed's interest rate hikes were one of the catastrophes of the US economy. Given the relative calm in the Forex market at the beginning of 2019, the US dollar is unlikely to lose value, especially in emerging market currencies.

However, it is very difficult to make estimates for the currency of each country, not just the US dollar, and to mention the figures that cover the entire year. European political uncertainty negatively affects euro and sterling; We know that the Euro / USD rate closed at 1.14 parity at the end of 2018. The EUR / USD parity is expected to be around $ 1.10 at the end of 2019. At the same time, the CNY (Chinese Yuan) / USD rate is expected to remain stable at just below 7.0.

10. Political Risks Probably not enough to trigger a recession in 2019
Political tensions and policy failures among countries will continue to be the greatest threat to global growth in 2019 and beyond because political stability or instability is directly affecting the economy. Trade wars are a major threat to the world economy, the greatest risk here is that mutual tensions have devastating effects and out of control.

Increasing budget deficits in the US, high debt levels in the US, Europe, and Japan, and unstable or political decisions and potential errors of key central banks pose a threat to the global economy. Nevertheless, in an environment where growth rates are low, the impact of economic damages arising from political risks will not be great. So small steps have little risks.

In this section, we tried to answer the questions listed below. If you have detailed questions, please specify them in the comments section;

  • What is the economic forecast for 2019?
  • Which country has the fastest growing economy in the world 2019?
  • What is the economic forecast for 2020?
  • What is the future of the world economy?
  • Is a recession coming in 2020?
  • Which country is the richest in the world?
  • IMF global outlook 2019
  • 2019 global economic Outlook


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usatradevisa: 2019 WORLD ECONOMY FORECAST
The International Monetary Fund estimates that world economic growth will be around 3.5% in 2019. Compared to 2018 and 2019, world growth data dominated the expectation of slowdown due to trade wars and high-interest rates. The global economy had begun with the 2018 strong and world-wide growth news. However, as the year progressed, the acceleration decreased. In addition to the economic war that the United States has started to impose customs duties and sanctions on China, especially the twists and threats of sanctions by Trump, pushed many countries to take small steps in the economic field and look skeptical to the future, and the world-wide growth trends have changed.
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